Severe prenatal shocks and adolescent health: Evidence from the Dutch Hunger Winter.

This paper investigates health impacts at the end of adolescence of prenatal exposure to multiple shocks, by exploiting the unique natural experiment of the Dutch Hunger Winter. At the end of World War II, a famine occurred abruptly in the Western Netherlands (November 1944-May 1945), pushing the previously and subsequently well-nourished Dutch population to the brink of starvation. We link high-quality military recruits data with objective health measurements for the cohorts born in the years surrounding WWII with newly digitised historical records on calories and nutrient composition of the war rations, daily temperature, and warfare deaths. Using difference-in-differences and triple differences research designs, we first show that the cohorts exposed to the Dutch Hunger Winter since early gestation have a higher Body Mass Index and an increased probability of being obese at age 18. We then find that this effect is partly moderated by warfare exposure and a reduction in energy-adjusted protein intake. Lastly, we account for selective mortality using a copula-based approach and newly-digitised data on survival rates, and find evidence of both selection and scarring effects. These results emphasise the complexity of the mechanisms at play in studying the consequences of early conditions.

Educational differences in mortality and hospitalisation for cardiovascular diseases.

This paper addresses how the educational gradient in the mortality rate is influenced by the educational difference in hospitalisation for Cardiovascular diseases. We account for possible selective hospitalisation, by using 'Timing-of-events'- model and for selection into education, by using an inverse propensity weighting method. Based on the estimated model we simulate the educational gains of improving education and decompose these educational gains into an indirect effect, running through changes in the hospitalisation process, and a direct effect due to other factors. We use Swedish Military Conscription Data (1951-1960), for males only, linked to administrative Swedish registers. Our empirical results show that the implied educational gains in the survival probability till age 63 are 2% to 5.5%-point, with the largest effect for the low educated. These gains are mainly due educational difference in hospitalisation for the high educated (1.3%-point) and mainly due to other factors (4.9%-point) for the low educated. However, for the (significant) educational gain in implied months lost due premature mortality before age 63 (2 to 9 months) we do not find a significant impact of the educational difference in hospitalisation.

Physical and psychological health at adolescence and home care use later in life.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the relation between physical and psychological health indicators at adolescence (age 18) and household, personal, and nursing home care use later in life at ages 57-69 years. METHODS: Using medical examinations on men born in 1944-1947 who were evaluated for military service at age 18 in the Netherlands, we link physical and psychological health assessments to national administrative microdata on the use of home care services at ages 57-69 years. We postulate a panel probit model for home care use over these years. In the analyses, we account for selective survival through correlated panel probit models. RESULTS: Poor mental health and being overweight at age 18 are important predictors of later life home care use. Home care use at ages 57-69 years is also highly related to and interacts with father's socioeconomic status and recruits' education at age 18. DISCUSSION: Specific health characteristics identified at age 18 are highly related to the later utilization of home-care at age 57-69 years. Some characteristics may be amenable to early life health interventions to decrease the future costs of long-term home care.

Disadvantaged neighborhoods, birth weight, and problem behavior in five- and six-year-old pre-school children: Evidence from a cohort born in Amsterdam.

RATIONALE: Low birth weight has been found to increase the problem behavior of children. Yet, little attention has been given to adequately account for the impact of the child's neighborhood on this relation. The residential neighborhood is a choice, based on factors that are usually not observed that may also influence birth weight and problem behavior. OBJECTIVE: Using a model that accounts for such endogeneity of both neighborhood choice and birth weight, we have analyzed behavioral problems in 4210 pre-school children between the ages of 5 and 6, birth weight, and neighborhood status, simultaneously. METHOD: The data used are from the Amsterdam Born Children and their Development (ABCD) cohort for whom a complete prospective record of birth outcomes, pregnancy, socio-demographic characteristics, and indicators of problem behavior are available. Neighborhood data obtained from Statistics Netherlands are merged with the ABCD data file. RESULTS: Our results suggest that ignoring endogeneity attenuates the effect of disadvantaged neighborhoods on both birth weight and problem behavior in pre-school children. Living in a disadvantaged neighborhood decreases the birth weight and increases the probability of problem behavior. Accounting for the endogeneity of neighborhood choice increases the estimated impacts (marginal effects: from -10% to -44% for birth weight and from 3% to 11% for problem behavior). Lower birth weight increases the probability of problem behavior, but it is only significant after adjusting for endogeneity. The coefficients of other factors have the expected associations with problem behavior. CONCLUSIONS: These significant effects of disadvantaged neighborhood on birth weight and problem behavior could inform policies and practices that improve neighborhood development for children born in Amsterdam.

Education, cognitive ability, and cause-specific mortality: A structural approach.

Education is negatively associated with most major causes of death. Prior work ignores the premise that cause-specific hazards are interdependent and that both education and mortality depend on cognitive ability. We analyse Swedish men aged 18-63, focusing on months lost due to specific causes-which solves the interdependence problem-and use a structural model that accounts for confounding due to cognitive ability. In a standard Cox model controlling for Intelligence Quotient, improving education is associated with large decreases in mortality for major causes of death. In the structural model, improving education is associated with a small decrease in months lost for most causes and education levels. Among the least educated, however, improving education strongly reduces the months lost, mainly those lost from external causes, such as accidents and suicide. Results suggest that conventional analysis of education and mortality may be biased, even if accounting for observed cognition.

[Medical training did not give survival advantage; life expectancy of Dutch medical professionals born between 1550 and 1909]. / Medische opleiding gaf geen overlevingsvoordeel.

OBJECTIVE: To examine if, over a period of centuries, the Dutch medical establishment enjoyed a survival advantage over a population group with a comparable social background and level of education. DESIGN: Retrospective database research. METHOD: We used documents which provided data on the births and deaths of 15,649 male and 659 female medical professionals and of 15,304 male clergy. We calculated the remaining life expectancy at the age of 25 of those generations born between the middle of the 16th century and the beginning of the 20th century. We applied event history analysis to estimate remaining life expectancy, dependently of survival at the age of 25. In doing this we applied Gompertz distribution and made a maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: From the middle of the 16th century onwards, the development of the life expectancy of medical professionals and clergy was comparable; it was characterised by a continuing increase in remaining life expectancy which was only interrupted in those generations who were confronted with a series of epidemics. The level of the remaining life expectancy was also comparable. Only in the generation born in the first decade of the 20th century did the life expectancy of medical professionals become on par with that of the total male population. The remaining life expectancy of female medical professionals born from 1850 onwards was higher than that of the total female population. CONCLUSION: For a long time, medical training conferred no advantage on survival.

Educational gains in cause-specific mortality: Accounting for cognitive ability and family-level confounders using propensity score weighting.

A negative educational gradient has been found for many causes of death. This association may be partly explained by confounding factors that affect both educational attainment and mortality. We correct the cause-specific educational gradient for observed individual background and unobserved family factors using an innovative method based on months lost due to a specific cause of death re-weighted by the probability of attaining a higher educational level. We use data on men with brothers from the Swedish Military Conscription Registry (1951-1983), linked to administrative registers. This dataset of some 700,000 men allows us to distinguish between five education levels and many causes of death. The empirical results reveal that raising the educational level from primary to tertiary would result in an additional 20 months of survival between ages 18 and 63. This improvement in mortality is mainly attributable to fewer deaths from external causes. The highly educated gain more than nine months due to the reduction in deaths from external causes, but gain only two months due to the reduction in cancer mortality and four months due to the reduction in cardiovascular mortality. Ignoring confounding would lead to an underestimation of the gains by educational attainment, especially for the less educated. Our results imply that if the education distribution of 50,000 Swedish men from the 1951 cohort were replaced with that of the corresponding 1983 cohort, 22% of the person-years that were lost to death between ages 18 and 63 would have been saved for this cohort.

Efficiency of Health Investment: Education or Intelligence?

In this paper, we hypothesize that education is associated with a higher efficiency of health investment, yet that this efficiency advantage is solely driven by intelligence. We operationalize efficiency of health investment as the probability of dying conditional on a certain hospital diagnosis and estimate a multistate structural equation model with three states: (i) healthy, (ii) hospitalized, and (iii) death. We use data from a Dutch cohort born around 1940 that links intelligence tests at age 12 years to later-life hospitalization and mortality records. The results indicate that intelligent individuals have a clear survival advantage for most hospital diagnoses, while the remaining disparities across education groups are small and not statistically significant. © 2016 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Return Migration of Foreign Students.

Using administrative panel data, this paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of the return of recent foreign students in the Netherlands. We focus on how individual labour market changes and marriage formation influence their decision to leave. Our model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across the migration, the labour market and the marriage formation processes. The large size of the data permits us to stratify the analysis by five groups based on the country of birth. The empirical analyses reveal that when students become unemployed they leave faster. The effect of finding a job on return is more ambiguous. For students from developed (including EU) countries it hardly affects their return, while students from less developed countries and Antilles/Surinam are more prone to leave after finding a job. Marriage in the Netherlands makes the students more prone to stay.

Gains in Life Expectancy Associated with Higher Education in Men.

BACKGROUND: Many studies show large differences in life expectancy across the range of education, intelligence, and socio-economic status. As educational attainment, intelligence, and socio-economic status are highly interrelated, appropriate methods are required to disentangle their separate effects. The aim of this paper is to present a novel method to estimate gains in life expectancy specifically associated with increased education. Our analysis is based on a structural model in which education level, IQ at age 18 and mortality all depend on (latent) intelligence. The model allows for (selective) educational choices based on observed factors and on an unobserved factor capturing intelligence. Our estimates are based on information from health examinations of military conscripts born in 1944-1947 in The Netherlands and their vital status through age 66 (n = 39,798). RESULTS: Our empirical results show that men with higher education have lower mortality. Using structural models to account for education choice, the estimated gain in life expectancy for men moving up one educational level ranges from 0.3 to 2 years. The estimated gain in months alive over the observational period ranges from -1.2 to 5.7 months. The selection effect is positive and amounts to a gain of one to two months. Decomposition of the selection effect shows that the gain from selection on (latent) intelligence is larger than the gain from selection on observed factors and amounts to 1.0 to 1.7 additional months alive. CONCLUSION: Our findings confirm the strong selection into education based on socio-economic status and intelligence. They also show significant higher life expectancy among individuals with higher education after the selectivity of education choice has been taken into account. Based on these estimates, it is plausible therefore that increases in education could lead to increases in life expectancy.

Education and health: The role of cognitive ability.

We aim to disentangle the relative impact of (i) cognitive ability and (ii) education on health and mortality using a structural equation model suggested by Conti et al. (2010). We extend their model by allowing for a duration dependent variable (mortality), and an ordinal educational variable. Data come from a Dutch cohort born between 1937 and 1941, including detailed measures of cognitive ability and family background in the final grade of primary school. The data are linked to the mortality register 1995-2011, such that we observe mortality between ages 55 and 75. The results suggest that at least half of the unconditional survival differences between educational groups are due to a 'selection effect', primarily on the basis of cognitive ability. Conditional survival differences across those having finished just primary school and those entering secondary education are still substantial, and amount to a 4 years gain in life expectancy, on average.

Prenatal famine exposure and adult mortality from cancer, cardiovascular disease, and other causes through age 63 years.

Nutritional conditions in early life may affect adult health, but prior studies of mortality have been limited to small samples. We evaluated the relationship between pre-/perinatal famine exposure during the Dutch Hunger Winter of 1944-1945 and mortality through age 63 years among 41,096 men born in 1944-1947 and examined at age 18 years for universal military service in the Netherlands. Of these men, 22,952 had been born around the time of the Dutch famine in 6 affected cities; the remainder served as unexposed controls. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for death from cancer, heart disease, other natural causes, and external causes. After 1,853,023 person-years of follow-up, we recorded 1,938 deaths from cancer, 1,040 from heart disease, 1,418 from other natural causes, and 523 from external causes. We found no increase in mortality from cancer or cardiovascular disease after prenatal famine exposure. However, there were increases in mortality from other natural causes (hazard ratio = 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.49) and external causes (hazard ratio = 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.09, 1.97) after famine exposure in the first trimester of gestation. Further follow-up of the cohort is needed to provide more accurate risk estimates of mortality from specific causes of death after nutritional disturbances during gestation and very early life.

Cause-specific neonatal deaths in rural Bangladesh, 1987-2005: levels, trends, and determinants.

This paper reports on an analysis of neonatal mortality from communicable and non-communicable diseases in Bangladesh. The competing-risks model employed incorporated both observed and unobserved heterogeneity and allowed the two heterogeneity terms to be correlated. The data used came from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Matlab. The results confirm the conclusions of previous studies about the levels, trends, and causes of neonatal death in the Matlab area: the education of the mother helps protect her children from death from both communicable and non-communicable diseases; the children of a father in a low-status occupation are particularly vulnerable to death from communicable diseases; and children born to mothers aged less than 20 face a particularly high risk of dying from a non-communicable disease. The risks of dying from a communicable disease and from a non-communicable disease were both found to fall significantly as the distance to the nearest health centre decreased.

Arts and ageing; life expectancy of historical artists in the Low Countries.

Practising arts has been linked to lowering stress, anxiety and blood pressure. These mechanisms are all known to affect the ageing process. Therefore, we examine the relation between long-term involvement in arts and life expectancy at age 50 (LE50), in a cohort of 12,159 male acoustic, literary and visual artists, who were born between 1700 and 1899 in the Low Countries. We compared the life expectancy at age 50 of the various artists with the elite and middle class of that time. In the birth cohorts before 1850, acoustic (LE50:14.5-19.5) and literary artists (LE50:17.8-20.8) had a similar life expectancy at age 50 compared to the elite (LE50:18.0-19.0). Only visual artists (LE50:15.5-17.1) had a lower life expectancy at age 50 compared to the elite at that time. For the most recent birth cohorts from 1850 through 1899, the comparison between artists and the elite reversed and acoustic and literary artist had a lower life expectancy at age 50, while visual artists enjoyed a similar life expectancy at age 50. Although artists belonged to the middle socioeconomic class and lived predominantly in urban areas with poor living conditions, they had a life expectancy similar to the elite population. This is in line with observed favourable effects of practicing arts on health in the short-term. From our historical analysis, we hypothesize several mechanisms through which artistic creativity could influence the ageing process and life expectancy. These hypotheses, however, should be formally tested before any definite conclusions on effects of arts on ageing can be drawn.

Life expectancy of artists in the Low Countries from the fifteenth to the twentieth century.

We investigated the role that urbanization and plague may have played in changes in life expectancy amongst artists in the Low Countries who were born between 1450 and 1909. Artists can be considered to be representative of a middle-class population living mostly in urban areas. The dataset was constructed using biographical information collected by the Rijksbureau voor Kunsthistorische Documentatie in The Hague, the Netherlands. As early as the beginning of the sixteenth century, life expectancy at age 20 amongst the artists had reached 40 years. After a substantial decline in the late sixteenth and the early seventeenth centuries, when plague hit the region, life expectancy at age 20 began to rise again, and this upward trend accelerated after 1850. The life expectancy of female artists commonly exceeded that of males, and sculptors had better survival prospects than painters. In comparison with elite groups in the Low Countries and elsewhere in Europe, life expectancy amongst the artists was rather high.

Historical trends in the correlation of sibling deaths in infancy in the Netherlands.

In this article, we study temporal, regional, and social variation in infant and childhood death clustering in The Netherlands, using data from three provinces. The data relate to children born in 90,000 marriages contracted between the beginning and the last quarter of the nineteenth century. Descriptive indicators show that death clustering was more frequent in the province of Zeeland and more common in the lower classes, and that it increased in two provinces over time. Shared frailty hazard models make it clear that the number of children who died before the birth of an index child had a negative effect on the mortality of index children, whereas earlier stillbirths and the number of children who died when the index child was at a young age had an increasing effect on the mortality of index children.